In furtherance to the previous information sent to you concerning a possible
human rights disaster planned by the People's Mojahedin Organisation of
Iran, Iran-Interlink has the following assessment of recent events.
For nearly the whole of September, the Mojahedin ceased all their propaganda
activities in order to concentrate on preparation for coming events. That
is, how to escape the consequences of being trapped in Iraq and associated
with Saddam Hussein.
The greatest priority is to get Massoud Rajavi out of Iraq. This will need
to be done illegally. Saddam Hussein will not willingly allow Rajavi to
leave Iraq and be beyond his control, a lose cannon. Saddam regards Rajavi
and the people under his command as part of his own armoury.
Europe will not formally accept him. He will have to enter his chosen
European country illegally and claim asylum there. As Maryam Rajavi did in
France in 1993.
Beyond this, Rajavi would need to enter Europe in a newsworthy context, in
order to preserve his stature as 'Leader of the Iranian Resistance'. It
would be unacceptable for Rajavi if his presence is ignored. He is likely to
arrange for the Mojahedin to create 'breaking news' directly before his
arrival, so that it can be announced that the top man is now coming. He
requires a situation in which an interview with him is mandatory for the
In the past the Mojahedin have staged various surprise events, such as mass
demonstrations, hunger strikes, and arson attacks on the Iranian embassies
in all the western capitals. It is probable that they will now do something
similar, or perhaps a little more dramatic to grab media attention.
The other part of Rajavi's plan for the Mojahedin is that the National
Liberation Army launch an all out attack on Iran. This would also provide
Rajavi with a newsworthy event. He could enter Europe this time, as he did
in 1980, at the cost of thousands of lives, claiming to be the saviour of
the resistance movement.
At the same time, there would certainly be support from Iraq for such an
attack. It would be in Saddam Hussein's interest, if Iraq is attacked, to
have chaos and provocation sown in the region; perhaps to give the impetus
for expanding any military action into an Arab war. It should also not be
forgotten that after the 1991 Gulf war, Saddam allowed and encouraged the
Mojahedin to defend the land which he had given them in Kurdistan. In March
that year, the Mojahedin repelled an Iranian incursion, but also razed
Kurdish villages and killed the people living in them.
Rajavi's plan to send his
army into Iran will be pursued even in the face of IRNA news agency reports
(11th, 22nd and 24th September) that the
Iranian regime is already prepared for any attempted attack. Although
couched in vague terms, in the view of Iran-Interlink, Iran is letting the
international community know that it will not act as an aggressor over its
border with Iraq, while at the same time, should Rajavi launch an incursion,
they will be ready to repel it.
Iran-Interlink feels it is vital to stress that the key to understanding the
Mojahedin and its potential for rash and lethal actions is to treat the
organisation as an armed cult. No matter how unpalatable this may be to the
western political arena, to overlook this aspect of their organisational
structure is to overlook or seriously underestimate the potential danger
posed by the Mojahedin. The members of the Mojahedin will do anything, and
that means anything, including suicide bombing and/or a mass suicidal attack
on Iran, at the behest of their leader, Massoud Rajavi. The question
remaining is, whether he feels the time has come for such drastic action or
not. Certainly he is not the man to give up and go away.
Iran-Interlink believes that, based on the activities and stances taken over
the past two decades, Massoud Rajavi can be regarded only as an inextricable
element of Iraq's regime. As such, the world community should hold Saddam
Hussein personally responsible for the actions of both Massoud Rajavi and